Cooper Flagg’s second NBA season could be the one that turns the promising young star into one of the league’s best players, both in real life and in fantasy. After averaging 21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 4.5 APG on his way to Rookie of the Year honors, Flagg has a chance to make another leap. Fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings and Eric Moody weighed in on how big that jump could be, what it will take, and how the return of Kyrie Irving affects the Dallas Mavericks’ young face of the franchise.
How big of a leap can Flagg make?
Snellings expects a big jump, especially as a scorer. Scoring is the best of Flagg’s many skills, but as a rookie, then-head coach Jason Kidd asked him to play point guard. That experience likely helped his all-around game, but it cost him some aggression in creating his own shots. Playing more off the ball with the green light to score, Snellings believes Flagg could approach 30 PPG while maintaining solid-to-strong peripheral numbers.
Moody sees Flagg as a realistic candidate for his first All-Star selection. He expects increases in points, rebounds and assists per game. Flagg already has three games of at least 45 points from last season and is showing signs of another leap. He scored 32 points in the season opener against the Houston Rockets and followed with 29 points and 11 assists against the Miami Heat on Monday night. Moody notes that Flagg is only 19 years old and should become a more efficient scorer with another year of experience and a better supporting cast.
What does Flagg need to do to reach his potential?
Snellings says Flagg must be aggressive at both ends. On offense, he needs to attack the rim, draw fouls and finish in the paint on every possession. That pressure would open up his jump shot and create more passing opportunities. Snellings expects Flagg to be a willing rebounder, though the Mavericks’ size means he likely won’t dominate the glass. On defense, Flagg should be just as assertive in jumping passing lanes and protecting the rim. Snellings points out that at Duke, he led the team in steals and blocks, as well as points, rebounds and assists.
Moody identifies outside shooting as the biggest area for improvement. Flagg shot just 29.5% from 3-point range last season, and defenders were comfortable sagging off him on the perimeter. If he raises that number to around 35%, he will create more chances to attack the basket. Moody also wants Flagg to be more selective with his midrange attempts. He already passes and defends at an excellent level, and his ability to create his own shot is impressive for his age. Better shooting efficiency, Moody says, would take his offensive game to another level.
How does Irving’s return change things?
Snellings believes adding Irving after a missed season allows Flagg to play alongside what he calls the best point guard and the best shot-maker of his career. That pairing should amplify every part of Flagg’s offense. Irving can draw defensive attention and set Flagg up with more open looks in the spots he likes to score from than he ever received as a rookie. Irving’s ability to hit shots from anywhere and attack imbalanced defenses should also boost Flagg’s assist totals. With both on the floor, opponents must account for two players, which makes life easier for each.
Moody agrees that Irving’s return should make a significant difference. Flagg spent considerable time at point guard as a rookie because Dallas lacked established playmakers. Irving can now handle much of that load while pulling defenders away from Flagg. That should create more chances for Flagg to attack closeouts, cut to the basket and score without creating everything himself. Moody is also curious how coach Dusty May will use the two together in pick-and-roll situations. Flagg may not hold the ball as often, but that doesn’t necessarily mean lower production. Moody believes his scoring efficiency could improve considerably.
Which historical comparison fits Flagg’s season?
Snellings points to two former Duke Blue Devils, Grant Hill and Jayson Tatum, as statistical comparisons. All three are do-everything wings with forward size and guard-like skills. Snellings believes Flagg’s production is more advanced than either player’s second season. He sees Flagg’s output as a blend of Hill’s sixth-season line (25.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG) and Tatum’s fifth-season line (26.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG). Flagg is a slightly better shot-blocker than either and could have more upside as a scorer.
Moody points to LeBron James. James averaged 20.9 PPG as a rookie before jumping to 27.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 7.2 APG in his second season. Moody stresses he isn’t predicting Flagg will become LeBron, but both entered the league with an unusual ability to impact games as scorers, rebounders and playmakers. Moody also highlights Flagg’s defensive instincts and how comfortable he already looks against NBA competition. He expects Flagg to take a similar step toward becoming one of the league’s best all-around players.
Is there a future bet worth making on Flagg?
Snellings would bet on Flagg to earn All-NBA honors at +600 odds. Making an All-NBA team is rare for second-year players, as only 10 have done it since 1989. The most recent is Luka Doncic, who accomplished the feat as a Maverick and may have paved the way for Flagg. If Flagg averages between 25 and 30 PPG with strong peripheral numbers, stays healthy enough to play the minimum 65 games, and helps lead Dallas into playoff contention, Snellings believes he has a reasonable chance to follow Doncic’s path at just 20 years old.
Moody would take a smaller shot on Flagg to win Most Improved Player at 70-1. Flagg averaged 21.0 PPG as a rookie, but Moody sees a realistic path to 26.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 6.0 APG this season. The last five Most Improved Players each increased their scoring average by at least 5.6 PPG, so Flagg may need to reach about 27.0 PPG to build a strong case. The challenge is that voters might see a big jump from the reigning Rookie of the Year as expected. However, if Flagg becomes an All-Star and pushes Dallas into playoff contention, Moody believes the conversation could change. At those odds, he considers Flagg worth a small wager.